What Threats or Conflicts Will Emerge or Escalate in 2015?

In March, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel stated, “Our military’s first responsibility is to prevent and de-escalate conflict.” However, when it comes to the United States’ ability to anticipate and predict conflict or instability, there is room for improvement.  Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently repeated what many military officials acknowledge, “In the last forty years, our record in predicting where we would use military force next, even six months out, is perfect. We’ve never once gotten it right.” Just a year ago, the United States did not anticipate that it would again be deeply engaged in military action in Iraq, let alone in Syria, against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria before the end of 2014.

For the past six years, in an effort to assist policymakers in anticipating and planning for international crises that threaten U.S. national interests, we at CFR’s Center for Preventive Action have conducted the Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS). The PPS evaluates ongoing and potential violence conflicts and sources of political instability based on the impact they could have on U.S. interests and their likelihood of occurring in the coming year.

What threats and conflict are you worried will emerge or escalate in 2015? Please tell us your suggestions in this survey. Keep your responses short and to the point, but feel free to explain why the contingency is important. Compelling suggestions will be included in this year’s survey, which will be published in December.

Take the survey here: http://svy.mk/1qqbKpk.